Allianz puts value of stranded freight at 192 trillion won — 'theoretical risk has become reality'

Ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz. [Reuters]
Ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz. [Reuters]

About 1,200 cargo vessels have been stranded in the Gulf following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the freight aboard estimated to be worth around $125 billion (192 trillion won), the Financial Times reported Wednesday.

The FT cited insurer Allianz for the figures, noting the estimate marks the first attempt to quantify the value of ships and cargo trapped in Gulf waters since the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February.

Michael Aldwell, a vice president at Kuehne+Nagel, the world's largest freight forwarder, told the FT that roughly 300,000 twenty-foot equivalent units remain stuck in the Gulf and that overland routes in and out of the region are under severe strain.

He said most of the cargo is still aboard the vessels or has been offloaded at local ports, as perishable goods account for only a small share of Middle Eastern exports.

Rahul Khanna, head of marine risk consulting at Allianz, said insurance claims have already been filed for losses and damage to ships hit by drones or missiles during the conflict. He added that further claims could arise for perishable cargo such as pharmaceuticals and frozen food.

According to the International Maritime Organization, more than 40 vessels were struck by missile attacks during the war and 14 crew members were killed.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been slowly recovering since the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire memorandum of understanding announced June 17.

According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, 69 ships exited the Gulf last week, up from 24 the previous week and the highest weekly figure since the war began. Before the conflict, an average of 945 vessels transited the strait each week.

The firm said that while the number of ships returning through the strait is gradually increasing, the shipping and logistics industry expects alternative routes bypassing the Gulf — through ports on the Gulf of Oman or the Red Sea, or via overland corridors — to become more permanently established.

Some shipping companies are likely to invest more heavily in alternative Gulf routes now that Iran has demonstrated its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz, industry observers said.

Allianz also flagged the continued presence of some 20,000 seafarers still in Gulf waters as a risk. The insurer warned that the shipping industry could face difficulties retaining and recruiting skilled crew at a time when demand for such workers is rising due to automation and the green transition, adding that this "will ultimately threaten the resilience of the shipping sector and the stability of global supply chains."

The FT also reported that the Hormuz closure has shifted how insurers perceive risk at critical logistics chokepoints.

Justus Heinrich, head of marine underwriting at Allianz, told the paper: "We always talked about realistic disaster scenarios, but now we are facing one." He added that awareness of actual operational risk "will shift somewhat from 'something that could theoretically happen' to 'a reality we are currently experiencing.'"


mokiya@heraldcorp.com