Opta puts Cape Verde's round-of-32 probability at 69.79%

A win over Saudi Arabia would clinch second place on their own

Uruguay's chances stand at just 41.6%

Cape Verde's Kevin Fina (No. 6) celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's first goal against Uruguay in a Group H match at the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup at Miami Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday. [AFP]
Cape Verde's Kevin Fina (No. 6) celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's first goal against Uruguay in a Group H match at the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup at Miami Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Sunday. [AFP]

Cape Verde, an African island nation of 520,000, has boosted its chances of advancing to the knockout stage after holding South American powerhouse Uruguay to a draw. Some analysts now put the tiny nation's odds of reaching the round of 32 as high as 70 percent.

Football statistics firm Opta on Tuesday put Cape Verde's probability of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA North America World Cup at 69.79 percent, projecting the side to finish second in Group H behind Spain.

Cape Verde currently sit third in Group H, while Uruguay — in second place — have a lower round-of-32 probability of 41.6 percent.

The gap comes down to each team's remaining fixture. Cape Verde face bottom-placed Saudi Arabia, while Uruguay take on group leaders Spain — a title contender built around FC Barcelona's Lamine Yamal. Uruguay may be a South American heavyweight, but Spain's "Armada" are widely regarded as one of the tournament favorites.

If Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia on Saturday in their final group-stage match, they will clinch second place and a round-of-32 berth on their own. A draw, however, would leave their fate dependent on the result between Spain and Uruguay.

Cape Verde drew 0-0 with Spain in their opening match, then fought back to earn a 2-2 draw against Uruguay on Monday. They trailed 2-1 at halftime before equalizing in the second half to show real resilience.


hyuk@heraldcorp.com