Iran declared the strait closed on Saturday;

Trump warned Iran would 'cease to exist' if it followed through;

US claims 55 ships passed through, but private trackers count only 12;

insurers and shipping firms still steering clear

Vessels anchored near the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Sunday (local time). [Reuters]
Vessels anchored near the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Sunday (local time). [Reuters]

A war of claims has erupted over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting the waterway is closed and the United States pushing back that it remains open. While the US government and military have moved to assert that energy flows through the strait are robust, many analysts expect a full resumption of normal traffic to remain elusive as psychological pressure on shipowners deepens.

Iran declared on June 20 (local time) that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israel's continued attacks on Lebanese Hezbollah even after a truce agreement. According to Iranian media, the naval unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned all vessels approaching the strait that they would not be permitted to pass.

The United States pushed back, insisting the strait remains open. Tim Hawkins, a Navy captain and spokesperson for US Central Command — which oversees operations related to the Iran conflict — told Reuters after Iran's announcement that "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz" and that "vessel traffic continues, and US forces are monitoring the situation to ensure it remains so." CENTCOM posted on its official X account that commercial vessel traffic through the strait increased on June 20, with 55 merchant ships transiting the waterway that day and more than 17 million barrels of crude oil transported through it, as US forces continued operations in support of freedom of navigation.

President Donald Trump said that evening in a phone interview with Fox News that he had warned Iran not to close the strait. "I spoke with Iranian officials and told them that if they close the strait, your country will cease to exist," Trump said.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also told Fox News on Sunday (local time) that 67 ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz that day, up from 55 the previous day. "Crude oil and petroleum products are moving at nearly the same level as before the conflict. Vessel traffic through the strait is going quite well right now," Wright said.

Regardless of the dueling claims between Washington and Tehran, the episode has laid bare the persistent uncertainty facing shipping companies and insurers, and the prevailing view is that normalizing traffic through the strait has become even harder as shipowners remain psychologically rattled.

According to Israeli maritime intelligence firm Windward, only 12 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — a sharp drop from 21 on Saturday. Even the 55 transits CENTCOM cited in its briefing amount to less than half the prewar daily average of 130 ships. Windward said movement by neutral and European-flagged merchant vessels had "all but disappeared" and that "the recovery seen immediately after the end-of-war MOU announcement stopped within a single day." It added that "hesitation has returned to an already unpredictable route," reflecting the chilling effect on shipowners and operators.

A significant number of the vessels that did pass through the strait were operating with limited use of their Automatic Identification System or with their signals switched off — a sign that the shipping industry still views the security situation with deep unease.

In the actual shipping market, insurance premiums and freight rates have yet to fall significantly from levels seen during the height of the conflict. Premiums remain tens of times higher than prewar prices, and with uncertainty over strait transit again on display, a return to prewar levels appears unlikely. Some shipping companies are exploring alternative routes, and European carriers in particular are approaching new voyage contracts with considerable caution.


kate01@heraldcorp.com