Seoul reclaims baseline for first time in 3 months; national index jumps 10.5 points

Apartment buildings in Seoul as seen from N Seoul Tower on Namsan. [Yonhap]
Apartment buildings in Seoul as seen from N Seoul Tower on Namsan. [Yonhap]

Rising home prices combined with a buoyant stock market are expected to ease the financial burden on prospective apartment move-ins, with June's national move-in outlook index surging to reflect growing industry optimism.

The Housing Industry Research Institute said Thursday that its nationwide apartment move-in outlook index for June rose 10.5 points from the previous month to 84.6, based on a survey of housing developers.

The move-in outlook index measures whether buyers who have subscribed to an apartment are expected to complete their final payments and move in on schedule. A reading below 100 indicates a predominantly negative outlook for move-in conditions, while a reading above 100 signals a positive one.

By region, the index rose 3.3 points in the greater Seoul area (78.4 to 81.7), 5.1 points in metropolitan cities (79.3 to 84.4), and 17.2 points in provincial areas (68.6 to 85.8).

The institute attributed the improvement to a confluence of factors: spreading home price gains, a rallying stock market and expectations of broader economic recovery — all of which are easing financing burdens on prospective move-ins by improving liquidity. Employees at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, who are set to receive large performance bonuses, have also emerged as major players in the apartment subscription and resale markets, bringing what the industry calls "semiconductor money" into the housing sector.

Seoul was a particular standout, climbing 8.8 points to 102.7 — crossing back above the baseline of 100 for the first time since March. "The pressure on prices has eased as housing listings have thinned, and expectations of rising asset values driven by the stock market rally have added to that," a Housing Industry Research Institute official said, adding that the figures appear to reflect expectations that move-in conditions for newly built apartments will continue to improve.

Apartment move-in outlook index. [Housing Industry Research Institute]
Apartment move-in outlook index. [Housing Industry Research Institute]

Within the greater Seoul area, Incheon's index rose 2.3 points (68.0 to 70.3), while Gyeonggi Province slipped 1.3 points (73.5 to 72.2).

Among metropolitan cities, Sejong posted the largest gain at 16.7 points (83.3 to 100.0), followed by Daejeon at 13.1 points (69.2 to 82.3). The institute said the improvements in both cities appear to reflect expectations that move-in conditions at newly supplied complexes will improve as rising jeonse prices — driven by a supply shortage — continue to push demand toward ownership.

Gwangju's move-in outlook index fell 8.0 points (85.7 to 77.7). The institute said the drop appears to stem from a sharp surge in April move-in supply to around 3,000 units — compared with a three-year monthly average of 550 — which has increased absorption pressure, compounded by a declining home price environment.

Provincial areas, where new supply has been limited, saw broad gains: South Gyeongsang Province jumped 34.4 points (72.7 to 107.1), North Chungcheong Province rose 28.6 points (71.4 to 100.0), North Gyeongsang Province gained 25.0 points (75.0 to 100.0), and North Jeolla Province climbed 9.1 points (90.9 to 100.0) — with all four reaching or surpassing the baseline.

However, the institute added that rising loan interest rates could weigh on the outlook by increasing the financing burden for end-user buyers.

The national apartment occupancy rate for May came in at 71.2 percent, up 15.4 percentage points from the previous month. By region, the greater Seoul area rose 2.6 percentage points (82.2 to 84.8 percent), the five major metropolitan cities gained 12.3 percentage points (57.8 to 70.1 percent), and other regions climbed 22.6 percentage points (44.3 to 66.9 percent).

Within the greater Seoul area, Seoul's occupancy rate dipped 1.2 percentage points (92.2 to 91.0 percent), but remained well above 90 percent. As rising home prices spread across the metropolitan area, occupancy in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province also improved by 4.5 percentage points (77.1 to 81.6 percent).

Despite the higher occupancy rate, financing remains a key variable. Among the reasons cited for non-move-ins, failure to secure a final payment loan topped the list at 35.4 percent, followed by delays in selling an existing home (29.2 percent), failure to secure a tenant (18.8 percent), and delays in selling subscription rights (4.2 percent).

“반도체 머니 여기로 올텐데, 지금 사자” 동탄, 전주보다 3배 더 올랐다[부동산360]

“반도체 머니 여기로 올텐데, 지금 사자” 동탄, 전주보다 3배 더 올랐다[부동산360]

[헤럴드경제=홍승희 기자] 경기도 화성시 동탄구 일대 아파트값이 이번 주에만 2% 가까이 올라 오름폭이 전주 대비 3배 확대된 것으로 나타났다. 전국에서 집값 상승률 1위
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