Trump turns 80 facing Iran war stalemate, sagging polls and a restive GOP

Trump marks his 80th birthday Saturday as lame-duck talk spreads in Washington — only 17 months into his second term, he faces a prolonged Iran war, falling approval ratings and the first signs of Republican defection ahead of November's midterm elections

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Air Force One at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on Monday. [AP]

By Seo Ji-yeon, The Herald Business

As Donald Trump turns 80 on Saturday, a debate over whether the president has entered lame-duck territory is spreading through Washington — remarkable given that he is only 17 months into his second term. Analysts say a prolonged war with Iran, sliding approval ratings and growing dissent within his own party are eroding his political clout faster than expected.

Reuters assessed that while Trump retains formidable influence inside the Republican Party, a string of domestic and foreign setbacks has begun to expose the limits of his power.

Particularly notable is that some Republican lawmakers have started publicly breaking with Trump ahead of the November midterm elections.

Since returning to office, Trump has continued to wield considerable political muscle — knocking out incumbents in Republican primaries and pressing ahead with aggressive trade policies. But the landscape has shifted of late.

A number of Republican senators and House members joined Democrats to oppose the administration's Iran war policy. They also moved to block a $1 billion project to build a grand banquet hall at the White House and an $1.8 billion fund to support political allies.

The defections signal that cracks are forming within the Republican Party over some of Trump's signature initiatives.

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing the White House. [EPA]

Concern about a post-midterm loss of influence has also surfaced inside the White House itself. According to Reuters, one White House adviser acknowledged that a weakening of power was inevitable, saying Trump "will naturally lose political leverage after the midterms."

Democrats are already preparing for life after November.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Democrats are drawing up investigation plans targeting the Trump administration on the assumption they will win the midterms. Rep. Robert Garcia, a Democrat, said in a recent interview that teams are already gathering materials for probes into allegations related to Jeffrey Epstein, Trump family business dealings, and policies at the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Should Democrats reclaim the House majority, a wave of hearings and subpoenas is widely expected to follow — forcing the Trump administration to devote more political resources to fending off Congress than to advancing policy.

In American politics, re-elected presidents are constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, and their influence tends to wane in the latter half of their tenure as political attention shifts toward the next power center.

A former senior White House official said Trump's recent remarks to close aides about the constitutionally impossible prospect of a third-term run were driven by a desire to avoid exactly that lame-duck image.

The foreign policy picture is no easier. Trump vowed to end the Iran war quickly after it began in February, but the conflict has dragged on for more than three months.

The United States and Iran both announced Friday that a cease-fire memorandum of understanding was imminent. A closer look at the portions of the MOU each side has disclosed reveals that core disputes remain — over the normalization of Strait of Hormuz navigation, the resolution of Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions against Tehran. Even if a signing takes place Saturday, analysts say the 60-day "technical negotiations" that follow — effectively the main talks — are unlikely to go smoothly.

The war's economic fallout is also raising questions about the administration's management of the economy: US inflation surpassed 4 percent in May for the first time in three years.

Courts have also repeatedly blocked administration policies, adding to the burden for a president who relied heavily on executive orders to drive his agenda in the early months of his return to office.

Questions about Trump's health and stamina have resurfaced as well. He is the oldest president ever inaugurated in American history. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in February found that 61 percent of Americans said Trump had become more impulsive because of his age.

Swelling in his ankles was spotted at recent public appearances, and footage of him closing his eyes during a basketball game circulated widely, fueling further health speculation. The White House released results of a routine physical and rebuffed the concerns, saying the president "is in excellent health."

Public opinion is not running in Trump's favor either. A recent Fox News poll found that 70 percent of respondents rated the state of the US economy negatively. Trump's job approval rating stood at 33 percent.

Analysts say the prolonged Iran war, rising prices and fatigue over tariff policy are chipping away at his support base even on economic issues, long considered his strongest ground.

Experts caution, however, that Trump's influence is far from finished.

The president retains broad executive order authority and enjoys far greater discretion than Congress in foreign and national security affairs. He is also expected to play a decisive role in shaping the Republican presidential nomination process.

Within the Republican Party, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are already mentioned as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination.

The conservative-leaning Wall Street Journal recently warned in a column that "if Democrats retake the House or Senate, the Trump presidency could in effect be finished."

Columnist Jason Riley said that if Democrats take control of Congress, a barrage of hearings, investigations and impeachment attempts would follow, predicting that Trump "will spend more time playing defense than governing for the rest of his term."

Ultimately, all eyes in Washington are turning toward the November midterms.

Historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections. If Republicans hold their congressional majorities, Trump can expect to retain significant influence through the end of his term. If Democrats reclaim the House or Senate, however, the lame-duck narrative is likely to become reality — with investigations, hearings and legislative obstruction piling up around the administration.

Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University, said that regardless of whether Democrats retake Congress, "Trump's characteristically unpredictable leadership will continue," adding that "American politics will experience constant volatility for the remainder of his term."

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sjy@heraldcorp.com