Commodity DRAM prices up over 50%, NAND up over 70% quarter-on-quarter as seller's market takes hold; SK Hynix operating margin seen approaching 80%, widening gap with TSMC

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. [Yonhap]
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. [Yonhap]

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are both on course to set all-time earnings records for the second consecutive quarter, riding a memory chip boom fueled by surging AI demand. Analysts project the two companies will together generate more than 150 trillion won (about $98.1 billion) in operating profit in the second quarter.

According to a brokerage consensus compiled by FnGuide on Sunday, Samsung Electronics is estimated to post second-quarter sales of 166.13 trillion won and operating profit of 85.34 trillion won. SK Hynix is forecast to report sales of 81.47 trillion won and operating profit of 62.16 trillion won. Their combined operating profit of roughly 147.51 trillion won approaches the 150 trillion won mark.

Analysts attribute the strong results to a confluence of factors: rising prices for commodity DRAM, NAND flash and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and a sharp increase in memory chip demand driven by the expansion of AI inference. Commodity DRAM prices are estimated to have risen more than 50 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, while NAND prices climbed more than 70 percent. The increasingly seller-friendly market has significantly improved profitability across memory chip makers.

For Samsung Electronics, scaling up production and sales of commodity DRAM — backed by the world's largest manufacturing capacity — is seen as the key driver. The Device Solutions division, which oversees the semiconductor business, is estimated to account for about 95 percent of the company's total operating profit. Within that, the memory chip unit alone is projected by securities firms to have generated 60 trillion to 70 trillion won in operating profit from DRAM and around 20 trillion won from NAND. The System LSI and foundry units are expected to remain in the red in the second quarter.

SK Hynix also appears set to break its own record. Its first-quarter operating profit stood at 37.6 trillion won, making a second-quarter figure well above 60 trillion won a substantial advance. Its operating margin is expected to approach 80 percent, surpassing the previous record of roughly 72 percent set in the first quarter. That would further widen the gap with TSMC — the world's top foundry and a benchmark for profitability — whose second-quarter operating margin is forecast at 56.5 to 58.5 percent.

A key tailwind has been the shift in AI market momentum from training to inference, which has sharply lifted demand for server DRAM and other commodity memory chips. HBM prices are also seen as having further room to rise. Market research firm TrendForce noted that commodity DRAM profitability outpaced HBM in the first quarter, but said AI-driven demand would keep HBM demand and prices on an upward trajectory. A weaker won against the dollar, which boosted foreign-exchange gains, also contributed in part to the earnings expansion.

SK Hynix plans to expand its medium- to long-term production capacity, expecting the memory chip supply shortage to persist for now. The company is channeling large-scale investment into its M15X and P&T7 facilities in Cheongju, the Yongin semiconductor cluster, and an advanced packaging factory in the United States. At Computex 2026 on Tuesday, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won said the memory bottleneck is expected to continue through 2030, adding that the company plans to double its wafer-based semiconductor production capacity over the next five years.


psj@heraldcorp.com