Han, who campaigned on 'rebuilding conservatism,' wins Busan Buk-gap by-election as independent; clash with PPP leadership now seen as inevitable

Han Dong-hoon, the independent winner of the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election, pumps his fist and embraces a campaign staffer at his Buk-gu campaign office after his victory was confirmed Thursday. [Yonhap]
Han Dong-hoon, the independent winner of the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election, pumps his fist and embraces a campaign staffer at his Buk-gu campaign office after his victory was confirmed Thursday. [Yonhap]

Han Dong-hoon, the independent candidate who won the Busan Buk-gap National Assembly by-election Wednesday, has emerged as the biggest wild card in a looming realignment of South Korea's conservative camp.

Having made "rebuilding conservatism" the central theme of his campaign, Han is now on a collision course with People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok — who expelled him from the party — and the broader PPP leadership. Analysts say the clash will significantly reshape the race for the party's next leadership.

Han won 42.96 percent of the vote in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, defeating Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo, according to the National Election Commission on Thursday. In his victory remarks, Han said he was grateful that voters had "opened the path to Buk-gu's future and the rebuilding of conservatism through this historic victory."

Political observers are reading the result as a vindication of what they call the "Han Dong-hoon model" of conservative renewal. Han was expelled from the PPP earlier this year following a controversy over a party members' online bulletin board, after which he made the high-stakes decision to run as an independent.

A PPP lawmaker said by phone that "voters handed Han the sword of conservative rebuilding, so he will become a leading conservative presidential contender." Another opposition-aligned figure said the result had "politically proven the so-called Han Dong-hoon line."

Han's entry into the National Assembly has complicated the calculus for the PPP leadership. Jang already faces pressure to answer for the party's overall performance after the Democratic Party swept eight incumbent regional government seats. The crushing defeat of Park Min-sik — who had positioned himself as a rival to Han in the district — adds further strain on Jang's hold on the party chairmanship. One PPP insider said that "with the local election losses and Han's win happening at the same time, won't calls for reform gradually grow louder among lawmakers?"

Pro-Han lawmakers within the PPP are also expected to amplify their voices now that Han has entered the Assembly. Figures aligned with Han — including lawmakers Bae Hyun-jin, Park Jeong-hun, Woo Jae-jun and Han Ji-a — are expected to rally around him and intensify pressure on Jang to step down.

The next move of Yoo Eui-dong, who won the Pyeongtaek rerun election for the PPP, is also seen as a variable. Yoo served as head of the Yeouido Institute under Han's leadership and is considered broadly aligned with the pro-Han camp. How he positions himself going forward could influence the party's internal realignment.

The selection of a successor to floor leader Song Eon-seog, whose term expires June 15, is another key factor. Rep. Jeong Jeom-sik is currently the frontrunner for the post, and if a majority of lawmakers back him, Han's readmission to the party is expected to be the first order of business.

Readmission would also open the door for Han to run in the next party leadership election. Should Jang — whose term runs until August next year — step down early and the PPP hold an early leadership convention, Han could either enter the race himself or back a pro-Han candidate to extend his influence over the party.

However, analysts also note that Jang is likely to leverage the PPP's victory in the Seoul mayoral race to maintain his grip on the party. Some observers have suggested that Jang could put forward options such as a full party membership confidence vote or a strategic resignation followed by a re-run for the chairmanship.


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