Trump’s approach to China, as well as China’s response will be crucial for South Korea [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

In China, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential election has been met with official indifference but with deep concerns, in reality, given Trump’s well-known unpredictability. In reality, a second Trump administration does not have to be worse for China than the Biden administration. It will depend on whether Trump finally opts for a “rapprochement” with China or continues to push for separation from China. When Biden came to power, Chinese leaders were hoping that China-US re

2024.12.09 11:10

China's deteriorating its relations with the European Union need to be watched [Alicia Garcia Herrero - HIC]

Containers are unloaded from the Hapag-Lloyd container ship Chacabuco at the HHLA Container Terminal Altenwerder on the River Elbe in Hamburg, Germany March 31, 2023. [REUTERS]EU-China relations have been deteriorating for years. From the honeymoon period of engagement, the tone radically changed in 2019 when the EU introduced its trilogy of relations from China, which moved beyond engagement to competition and even rivalry. What was already alarming from China‘s perspective, namely that t

2024.10.11 11:15

Western Populism and China’s Leadership: A Train Clash? [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

The European Elections, which had long been considered a boring political event, especially outside of Europe, has drawn enormous attention in different places, including in China. The results point to populism (especially far-right one) taking a stronger hold in the EU, which has drawn the attention of many observers even outside of the EU as well as in China. A more populist nature of European institutions may have important implications for the EU‘s stance as regards US-China strategic

2024.08.08 11:12

China’s increasingly large manufacturing production to hit the wall in Western economy [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

Since President Xi Jinping announced the rise of the “New Production Forces” as China‘s annual plenary sessions of the National People’s Congress and of the Chinese People‘s Political Consultative Conference (so-called “Two Sessions”), industrial production has been growing much faster than consumption and exports have been increasing. This is particularly the case of green tech exports which are sectors increasingly dominated by China in the global aren

2024.06.17 11:08

Will the Indian economy ever surpass that of China? [Alicia Garcia-Herrero- HIC]

이 기사는 해외 석학 기고글 플랫폼 '헤럴드 인사이트 컬렉션'에 게재된 기사입니다. Had I asked this question ten years ago, the answer would have been clear cut: Impossible. But things are changing. The Chinese economy is five to six times bigger than that of India but India‘s growth rate is clearly higher than that of China, especially since 2022, and there is no expectation this trend will change any time soon. This means that, unless a major shock hits the Indian economy, it will continue to converge in size wit

2024.04.22 15:10

A boring 2024 for the Chinese economy would be a relief for the world [Alicia Garcia-Herrero - HIC]

이 기사는 해외 석학 기고글 플랫폼 '헤럴드 인사이트 컬렉션'에 게재된 기사입니다. The years of China‘s high growth are past, as the world painfully learned in 2023. Notwithstanding the enormous tailwinds stemming from having exited Zero-Covid policies during 2022, the Chinese economy barely made to reach the underwhelming 5% GDP growth target cautiously set by Premier Li Qiang back in March 2022. The reasons for the very slow recovery of the Chinese economy in 2023 are both cyclical and structural. On the cyclic

2024.04.22 14:29