Understanding Trump Trade War 2.0[Shang-Jin Wei-HIC]

U.S. President-elect Donald J. Trump has been unequivocal about his plan to launch Trade War 2.0 against the world. He has already announced that, on Day 1 of his new administration, he will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (even though they were supposed to be close to zero under the USMCA trade agreement signed under the first Trump Administration) and additional 10% tariffs on imports from China(on top of about 21% already in place). Note that these are unlikely the only n

2024.12.27 13:25

What Does China’s Economic Stimulus Package Mean for the World Economy? [Shang-Jin Wei-HIC]

China recently announced a series of measures to boost the real estate sector in particular. [AFP]Shortly before the 75th Anniversary of the People‘s Republic on October 1, China’s central bank and financial market regulators, jointly announced a stimulus package that seems to be bolder than the market expectation. The main local stock indices rose by more than 15% so far, creating the best performing trading sessions in more than a decade. The actions by the Central Bank and financi

2024.10.15 11:15

Implications of the Harris versus Trump Presidency for the World [Shang-Jin Wei-HIC]

US vice-president Kamala Harris outlined her vision for an ''opportunity economy'' in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Thursday-Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty ImagesConvention Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024, in Chicago. [AP Photo/Brynn Anderson]Former President Donald Trump raises his fist July 18, 2024, during his speech the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.[AP]One of the biggest uncertainties hanging over the world economy i

2024.08.29 11:45

The EU and US New China Tariffs and Their Impact on the World [Shang-Jin Wei-HIC]

The European Union on June 12, 2024, announced provisional tariffs from 17.4 to 38.1% on imports of Chinese made electric vehicles (EVs). They come after months of investigations by a team of EU experts on the site of Chinese EV producers, pouring over all documents at the selected companies, and interviewing numerous industrial and diplomatic experts. They are meant to be imposed on top of the 10 percent tariffs already in place. The announced provisional tariffs represent EU experts‘ bes

2024.06.25 11:42

Will the Chinese Economy Display Vitality and Good Fortune in the Year of Dragon?[Shang-Jin Wei - HIC]

이 기사는 해외 석학 기고글 플랫폼 '헤럴드 인사이트 컬렉션'에 게재된 기사입니다. As the Chinese stock market re-opens on February 19, after a 10-day celebration of the arrival of the Year of Dragon, investors will eagerly find out if strong market supportive measures will be put in place by the Chinese authorities. The real side of the Chinese economy did not do as well in the previous Year of Tiger (from January 22, 2023 to February 9, 2024) as many investment bank economists had predicted, with officially reporte

2024.04.22 14:36

Could International Investors Be Disappointed by India? [SHANG-JIN WEI - HIC]

“China slows, India grows,” the title of an S&P report on the world economy released late last year, neatly summarizes an increasingly common international sentiment about the shifting relative strengths of the world‘s largest two developing economies. The Indian stock market is booming, and the number of investment accounts that trade stocks on India’s National Stock Exchange has grown by over 30% over the last 3 and half years from 30 million in 2020 to 40 million now.

2024.04.19 11:05