The Dispensable Nation? [Robert Dohner - HIC]

“We are America; we are the indispensable nation.” (Madeline Albright, 1998) In the end, despite all the polls and commentary, it was not even close. By a decisive, though not overwhelming vote, Donald Trump won a second presidential term in the U.S. election on November 5. There has been voluminous commentary in the weeks since, laying out all possible reasons for the defeat of Kamala Harris and the Democrats. But the most likely explanation is that reaction to the sharp increase in prices afte

2024.12.16 11:35

Does the US Want Foreign Investment?...It’s complicated [Robert Dohner - HIC]

The stage seemed set for a multi-billion dollar transaction and a sigh of relief. An aging steel plant owned by a company that has lagged behind others in the industry. An acquisition bid by a world-leading company of a close foreign ally that promised to bring capital investment, new technology and to maintain the workforce. An acquisition bid that gave shareholders a 40% premium over the current share price. And an administration -- in the place where the “Washington Consensus” pro

2024.10.17 11:33

Excess Capacity, Industrial Subsidies, and Trade Conflict [Robert Dohner - HIC]

Nothing Exceeds Like Excess International trade conflict brought about by excess capacity and cut-price exports has been a recurring feature on international relations going back at least until the Great Depression in the 1930s. The steel industry has long been prone to excess capacity, from Europe and Japan in the 1970s and 80s, the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, and China since 2000, but the steel industry is hardly alone. China now faces the most recent outbreak of charges of excess capaci

2024.08.19 11:16

Why Won’t the Dollar Topple? [Robert Dohner - HIC]

“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”-Mark Twain The demise of the US dollar as the leading global currency has been an enduring storyline over the past half century. As a stage play, it has outlived a succession of leading actors, from the Deutschemark in the 1970s, the yen in the 1980s, the euro in the early 2000‘s, and the renminbi more recently. The enduring interest is not hard to explain. The US share of global GDP has declined significantly since WWII, with

2024.06.18 11:19

Dependence, Resiliency, Security…What we trade makes us stronger [Robert Dohner - HIC]

이 기사는 해외 석학 기고글 플랫폼 '헤럴드 인사이트 컬렉션'에 게재된 기사입니다. Ships carry out container loading and unloading operations at the Dapukou container Terminal at Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang province, China, April 9, 2024. [Getty Images]After seven decades of trade liberalization, trade agreements, and trade expansion, momentum for further liberalization had been exhausted by 2016. Growing dissatisfaction over the unequal spread of the benefits and costs of trade fueled the Brexit vote in June 2016, the oppos

2024.04.22 15:32

Who‘s Afraid of Deglobalization? [Robert Dohner - HIC]

이 기사는 해외 석학 기고글 플랫폼 '헤럴드 인사이트 컬렉션'에 게재된 기사입니다. “Anything that can‘t go on forever will stop” - Herbert Stein No mega-trend has been as widely and anxiously discussed as globalization and its apparent recent demise. Whether the future is one of deglobalization or, at best, “slowbalization”, many view the consequences as involving huge costs and lost opportunity for world growth. As the president of the World Economic Forum put it, “there can be no r

2024.04.22 14:41